The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CHF, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CHF.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact: 1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. 2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. 3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of change in the general level of prices of goods and services bought by households over a specified period of time. It compares a household's cost for a specific basket of finished goods and services with the cost of the same basket during an earlier benchmark period. The consumer price index is used as a measurement of inflation and is a key economic figure. Likely impact: 1) Interest Rates: Larger-than-expected quarterly increase in price inflation or increasing trend is considered inflationary; this will cause bond prices to drop and yields and interest rates to rise. 2) Stock Prices: Higher than expected price inflation is bearish on the stock market as higher inflation will lead to higher interest rates. 3) Exchange Rates: High inflation has an uncertain effect. It would lead to depreciation as higher prices mean lower competitiveness. Conversely, higher inflation causes higher interest rates and a tighter monetary policy that leads to an appreciation.
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the reported month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negitive/bearish for the HKD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the HKD.
The Italian Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Corporate Sector Wages released by the Central Statistical Office is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. This figure can provide insight on the Polish employment situation. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the PLN, while a lower than expected number as negative
The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods sand services, from and to Eu countries, over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The number of persons employed in national economy, employment status, selected categories of employed persons, foreigners, disabled persons, retired persons, elements of employment movement by recruitment sources and reasons for dismissals.
The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the U.K. during the reported month. A rising trend indicates weakness in the labor market, which has a trickle-down effect on consumer spending and economic growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
The Average Earnings Index is an indicator of inflationary pressures emanating from the labour market. The effect of a higher or lower figure than expected can be both bullish or bearish.
Peter Praet, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, is set to speak. His speeches often contain indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.
The German Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index gauges the six-month economic outlook. A level above zero indicates optimism; below indicates pessimism. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Labor Cost Index measures the change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime. It is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health. The reading is compiled from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
This survey summarizes the net percentage of positive and negative responses regarding the expectations for economic growth in the next 6 months, as given by financial analysts from banks, insurance companies and large industrial enterprises. For example, if 50% believe that the economic situation will improve and 20% believe it will get worse, the result will be +30.
The survey deals with the markets of Germany, the USA, Japan, Great Britain, France, Italy and other EU countries.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the Euro, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the Euro.
Breakdown of total nominal hourly labour costs, whole economy: wages.% change from previous year, not seasonally adjusted. In addition to employees gross earnings, total labour costs include indirect costs such as employers social contributions and taxes connected to the employment. Gross earnings or wages arethose paid directly and regularly by the employer at the time of each wage payment. They include the value of any social contributions, income taxes, etc. payable by the employee, even if actually withheld by the employer and paid directly to social insurance schemes, tax authorities, etc. on behalf of the employee. Hourly labour cost indices show the short-term development of the total cost for employers of employing the labour force.
These indices are
calculated by Member States using jointly-agreed definitions. When calculating these indices, all enterprises, whatever their size, and all employees should be taken into account.Labour costs include gross wages and salaries, employers social contributions and taxes net of subsidies connected to employment. Labour costs here do not include costs for occupational training or other costs such as
those for canteens or recruitment.Hourly labour costs are obtained by dividing the total of these costs for all employees in a defined country by all hours worked by these employees. Here, instead of hours worked, hours paid/number of employees might have been used as a measure of volume of labour.""
The current account is the international flow of money for purposes other than investments. It offers a broad picture of how an economy is managing its finances with the rest of the world. If a country has a deficit in its current account it means that it has a saving deficit. The country is living above its means and is gradually becoming indebted to the world. The current account consists of the net total of:
- (BOP) TRADE BALANCE: Export f.o.b. less Imports c.i.f.
- (BOP) GENERAL GOVERNMENT: This covers all government current expenditure and receipts not appropriated to trade balance or to other transactions.
- (BOP) TRANSPORT: Sea Transport and Civil Aviation: Receipts and payments for passenger fares, freight, charter hire, passage money, oil bunkers, airport charges and other disbursements.
- (BOP) TRAVEL: The net value of Personal expenditure from tourism.
- (BOP) FINANCIALS AND OTHER SERVICES
- (BOP) INTEREST, PROFITS, AND DIVIDENDS
- (BOP) TRANSFERSA higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the INR , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the INR.
The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent 'official' retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
The Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Usually a rise in PPI will lead in a short time to a rise in CPI and therefore to a rising interest rates and rising currency. during recession, the producers are not able to roll over the rising cost of material to the consumer, so a rise in PPI will not be rolled over to the consumer but will lower the profitablility of the producer and will deepen the recession, that will lead to a fall in local currency.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation. Usually a rise in PPI will lead in a short time to a rise in CPI and therefore to a rising interest rates and rising currency. during recession, the producers are not able to roll over the rising cost of material to the consumer, so a rise in PPI will not be rolled over to the consumer but will lower the profitablility of the producer and will deepen the recession, that will lead to a fall in local currency.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Factory Orders measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers, but excluding all orders related to the transportation industry. The report also includes a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier as well as data new data on non-durable goods orders. A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative.
Shipments of nondefense capital goods, excluding aircrafts. Nondefense capital goods include among other things: small arms; farm machinery and equipment; construction machinery; turbines, generators and other power transmission equipment; electronic computers; communications equipment; heavy duty trucks; office and institutional furniture; and medical materials and supplies.
Measures the weighted-average price of 9 dairy products sold at auction every 2 weeks. It is viewed as a leading indicator of New Zealand's trade balance because rising commodity prices boost export income. The dairy industry is New Zealand's biggest export earner, accounting for more than 29% by value of the country's exports.
Revenue is the amount of money that is brought into a company by its business activities. In the case of government, revenue is the money received from taxation, fees, fines, inter-governmental grants or transfers, securities sales,mineral rights and resource rights, as well as any sales that are made.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the BRL, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the BRL.
Employment is the total number of persons above a specified age, who in a short reference period (e.g. a week or a day), were in paid employment or self-employment. Paid employment includes persons who worked in the reference period or who had a job but were temporarily absent from work. Self-employment
includes persons who either worked in the reference period or were temporarily absent from work.Series data show evolution of formal employment in Brazil. It is measured by the movements declared in CAGED - Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados (General Register of Employment and Unemployment) of the Ministry of Labour. There are separate series for thousands of admitted and dismissed employees per month (registered in CAGED), as well as for net, i.e. admitted less dismissed. Totals of admitted, dismissed and net are also broken down to eight main sectors of economic activity according to the IBGE.
The American Petroleum Institute reports inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline and distillates stocks. The figure shows how much oil and product is available in storage.The indicator gives an overview of US petroleum demand.
If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. The PPI shows the same general pattern of inflation as does Consumer price index, but is more volatile. This is because it is weighted more heavily towards goods that are traded in highly competitive markets and somewhat less sensitive to changes in the cost of labour. In principle, the PPI should include service industries. But in practice it is limited to the domestic agricultural and industrial sector. The prices should be farm-gate prices for the agricultural sector and ex-factory prices for the industrial sector. The PPI is worth watching as a leading indicator of inflation at the consumer level. Price changes at the wholesale level take time to work their way through to the retail store.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is designed to monitor changes in prices of items at the first important commercial transactions. The PPI shows the same general pattern of inflation as does Consumer price index, but is more volatile. This is because it is weighted more heavily towards goods that are traded in highly competitive markets and somewhat less sensitive to changes in the cost of labour. In principle, the PPI should include service industries. But in practice it is limited to the domestic agricultural and industrial sector. The prices should be farm-gate prices for the agricultural sector and ex-factory prices for the industrial sector. The PPI is worth watching as a leading indicator of inflation at the consumer level. Price changes at the wholesale level take time to work their way through to the retail store.A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the KRW , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the KRW.
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the NZD.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the NZD.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
Balance of payments is a set of accounts recording all economic transactions between the residents of the country and the rest of the world in a given period of time, usually one year. Payments into the country are called credits, payments out of the country are called debits.
There are three main components of a balance of payments:
- current account
- capital account
- financial account
Either a surplus or a deficit can be shown in any of these components.
Current account records the values of the folling:
- trade balance
- exports and imports of goods and services
- income payments and expenditure interest, dividends, salaries
- unilateral transfers aid, taxes, one-way gifts.
It shows how a country deals with the global economy on a non-investment basis. Balance of payments shows strengths and weaknesses in a country's economy and therefore helps to achieve balanced economic growth. The release of a balance of payments can have a significant effect on the exchange rate of a national currency against other currencies. It is also important to investors of domestic companies that depend on exports.
The Reuters Tankan is a monthly survey of leading Japanese companies, and it wasformally known as Telerate Tankan until it was renamed after the acquisition of Quick Moneyline Telerate Corp. by Reuters Group. It covers a panel of 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufacturers. The monthly figures are designed to provide early indications of the BOJ's quarterly tankan. The indexes are derivedby subtracting the percentage of respondents who say business conditions are poor from the percentage of those who say they are good.
The Westpac/Melbourne Institute (MI) Leading Index is a composite index based on nine economic indicators, which is designed to predict the direction of the economy.The data is compiled from economic indicators related to consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads. The report tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the Bank of Japan's policy setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the decision on where to set interest rates.
Michele Bullock serves as an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
